Cavaliers vs. Knicks

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Knicks beat the Cavaliers 115-104 in Game 1 at Madison Square Garden on 19 May, so any live market on the next meeting should be read against a New York team that already has one home win in the series. New York finished 53-29 and Cleveland 52-30, but the Knicks were 30-10 at home and closed the regular season with the stronger home split. That matters because comparable match-ups this close in record often turn on venue and half-court execution rather than broad season numbers.

For traders, the main variables are availability and any adjustment Cleveland makes after Game 1. ESPN’s game page lists Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in the Cavaliers’ starting group, underlining how much the result depends on Cleveland’s core being intact and efficient. If there are any late injury updates, minutes restrictions, or changes to the rotation, they should move the price more than the season standings do. The market’s 0% YES implication is extreme relative to a series in which the teams finished just one game apart, so watch for line-up announcements, travel timing and any official status reports before the next tip.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cavaliers vs. Knicks on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.