Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 197.5 | 93% |
| O/U 199.5 | 90% |
| Warriors O/U 92.5 | 90% |
| O/U 201.5 | 88% |
| O/U 203.5 | 86% |
| Warriors O/U 94.5 | 85% |
| O/U 205.5 | 82% |
| O/U 207.5 | 80% |
| Warriors O/U 96.5 | 79% |
| O/U 209.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 92.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 90.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 94.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 96.5 | 76% |
| Warriors O/U 98.5 | 74% |
| 1H O/U 98.5 | 73% |
| Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| O/U 211.5 | 72% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 100.5 | 70% |
| Spread -3.5 | 69% |
| O/U 213.5 | 69% |
| Warriors O/U 100.5 | 68% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| O/U 215.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 64% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 63% |
| Warriors O/U 102.5 | 62% |
| O/U 217.5 | 61% |
| Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 104.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 58% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 58% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 58% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| O/U 219.5 | 55% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Warriors O/U 104.5 | 55% |
| Spread -8.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 53% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| O/U 221.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Assists O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 106.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| O/U 223.5 | 46% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 24.5 | 45% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 39.5 | 45% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| O/U 224.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 44% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 43% |
| Spread -11.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 42% |
| O/U 225.5 | 41% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 29.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 40% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 38% |
| Spread -13.5 | 37% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| O/U 227.5 | 36% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 35% |
| O/U 229.5 | 33% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Spread -15.5 | 32% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5 | 32% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 32% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 31% |
| O/U 231.5 | 30% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| Warriors O/U 112.5 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 29% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 28% |
| Suns O/U 122.5 | 28% |
| Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| O/U 233.5 | 26% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 25% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | 24% |
| O/U 235.5 | 24% |
| Suns O/U 124.5 | 24% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 24% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| O/U 237.5 | 21% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| O/U 239.5 | 18% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Warriors O/U 116.5 | 18% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 17% |
| Suns O/U 126.5 | 17% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Spread -23.5 | 15% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 15% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 15% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -25.5 | 12% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Spread -27.5 | 10% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -12.5 | 7% |
| Spread -29.5 | 7% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 7% |
| Spread -31.5 | 6% |
| Spread -33.5 | 6% |
| O/U 251.5 | 6% |
| O/U 253.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -18.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -22.5 | 2% |
Market context
Warriors vs. Suns — current market-implied probability: 93%. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 10:00PM ET: If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the Suns win, the market will resolve to "Suns". If the game is postpon…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $125K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Warriors vs. Suns. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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