Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 85% |
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 81% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 77% |
| O/U 224.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 75% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 69% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 65% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 62% |
| Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 233.5 | 57% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 56% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 53% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 52% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 52% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 51% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 48% |
| O/U 238.5 | 47% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 47% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 46% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 44% |
| O/U 240.5 | 43% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 1H Moneyline | 40% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 39% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 38% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 37% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 35% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 32% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| O/U 246.5 | 28% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 27% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 27% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 27% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 26% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 24% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 23% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 18% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -18.5 | 13% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 7% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 85% probability to grizzlies vs. warriors. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 10:00PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the game …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $508K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Grizzlies vs. Warriors. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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