Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 99% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 97% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 96% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 93% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 92% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 91% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 90% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 90% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 89% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 87% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 85% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 84% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 83% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 82% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 82% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 80% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 75% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 75% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 75% |
| Bijan Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 74% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 74% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 74% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 72% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 71% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 71% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 70% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 68% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 67% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 67% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 65% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 65% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 65% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 64% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 119.5 | 64% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 64% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 64% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 63% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 62% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 61% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 61% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 60% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 60% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 60% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 59% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 59% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 58% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 58% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 57% |
| Christian Watson: 2+ Touchdowns | 57% |
| Tucker Kraft: Anytime Touchdown | 56% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 56% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Anytime Touchdown | 55% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 55% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 55% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 54% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 54% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 53% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 53% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 52% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Anytime Touchdown | 52% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 52% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 52% |
| Jonnu Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 51% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 51% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 51% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 51% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bo Melton: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Blair: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Drake London: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Love: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mark Redman: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Muse: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Drake London: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Anytime Touchdown | 28% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, falcons vs. packers - player props stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Falcons and Packers, scheduled for September 24 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Falcons vs. Packers - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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