Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bologna travel to the San Siro on 24 May 2026 for a final-day Serie A fixture against defending champions Inter Milan, with the 26% implied probability reflecting Bologna's status as significant underdogs in a match that could carry title or European qualification implications depending on the league table's shape at that stage.

Historically, Bologna's record against Inter at the San Siro presents a cautious case for backing the visitors. Over the past decade, Bologna have won just once in Milan in Serie A play, with Inter winning roughly 60% of such encounters. However, the current probability sits above Bologna's typical away conversion rate against top-six sides, suggesting the market may be pricing in either Inter fatigue from a long season or specific form deterioration. Bologna's recent trajectory matters considerably: if they arrive in strong mid-table form with momentum, the 26% reflects reasonable scepticism rather than dismissal.

Traders should monitor team news through May, particularly Inter's injury status and whether they have secured their objectives by the final weekend. A secured title or Champions League spot could see Inter rotate heavily, materially shifting match dynamics. Bologna's own European qualification hopes will determine their intensity; a side fighting for Conference League football behaves differently from one already assured of their position. Coaching decisions in the fortnight before the match—whether either side makes tactical adjustments or shows signs of complacency—will be critical signals. Press coverage from Gazzetta dello Sport and Corriere della Sera typically flags such developments early.

Methodology

We track Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.