IR Iran vs. New Zealand - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran and New Zealand will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 15 June at 9:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 11 per cent implied probability, reflecting the difficulty of predicting a specific scoreline in international football where draws and narrow victories dominate. An exact score resolves only if the final whistle produces one of the explicitly listed results; any other outcome triggers "Any Other Score."

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group matches typically see winning probabilities between 8 and 15 per cent for individual scorelines, depending on team quality gaps and tournament context. Iran reached the 2022 World Cup group stage but finished bottom of their bracket; New Zealand qualified for Qatar 2022 as well but exited at the same stage. Neither team has demonstrated consistent attacking potency at recent tournaments. The 1–0 and 0–0 results account for roughly 40 per cent of all group-stage matches historically, yet any single scoreline remains a long-odds proposition given the range of plausible outcomes.

Traders should monitor team news through May and early June, particularly injury updates to key players and any late coaching changes. Iran's squad composition and New Zealand's defensive setup will matter considerably; recent friendlies in the weeks before the tournament typically signal attacking intent and defensive solidity. The scheduling places this match in the group's final round, meaning both teams' qualification scenarios may influence tactical approach. Confirmation of the final squad lists by early June will clarify whether either side faces unexpected absences that could shift scoring expectations.

Methodology

This page reviews IR Iran vs. New Zealand - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.