Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group I fixture between Senegal and Iraq takes place at Toronto Stadium on Friday, 26 June 2026, with the market focused on the exact score after 90 minutes of regulation. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 4% for a specific outcome, reflecting the high variance inherent in exact-score betting where any deviation resolves to "Any Other Score".

Historical exact-score markets in World Cup group stages often show similar low probabilities for specific results, particularly when teams possess contrasting defensive records. Senegal’s recent form includes a 2-3 loss to Norway and a 1-3 defeat against France, indicating defensive fragility, while Iraq suffered a 0-3 loss to France and a 1-4 defeat to Norway, suggesting they struggle against top-tier attacks. Comparable cases from previous tournaments show that exact-score probabilities rarely exceed 5-6% unless one team is overwhelmingly dominant, making the current 4% figure consistent with the competitive balance and defensive vulnerabilities observed in both squads.

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements regarding key absences, as both teams have shown inconsistency in recent matches. Senegal’s coach may adjust tactics following their heavy defeats, while Iraq’s defensive setup could be tested by Senegal’s attacking intent, which Yahoo Sports notes as a growing factor in their recent performances. Any late changes to line-ups, particularly involving strikers like Ismaila Sarr for Senegal or Frans Putros for Iraq, could significantly alter the probability landscape. Additionally, weather conditions at Toronto Stadium and potential pitch quality may influence the final score, as both teams have struggled to maintain clean sheets in high-pressure World Cup encounters.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.