UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Song Yadong and Deiveson Figueiredo are scheduled to meet on the bantamweight main card at UFC Fight Night on 30 May 2026. The bout pairs a Chinese striker known for high-volume combinations against a former two-time flyweight champion moving up in weight class. Song has competed consistently at 135 pounds over recent years, whilst Figueiredo's return to bantamweight represents a significant shift after establishing himself as one of the division's most accomplished fighters at 125 pounds.

The 0% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than settled conviction. Figueiredo's track record includes victories over elite-level opposition and championship experience, yet his weight-class transition introduces variables absent from his prior resume. Song's recent form and consistency at bantamweight provide a baseline for comparison, though stylistic matchups at this level often produce unexpected outcomes. Historical precedent shows that former champions moving up divisions achieve mixed results; some leverage their experience and athleticism effectively, whilst others struggle with the physical adjustment.

Traders should monitor official UFC announcements regarding fighter health and training camp updates through May. Any late withdrawal or injury substitution would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, fundamentally altering market dynamics. Coaching changes or notable absences from either fighter's camp, typically reported by MMA journalists covering pre-fight preparations, could signal readiness levels. The settlement window extends to 13 June 2026, providing a buffer beyond the scheduled date for potential postponements or technical complications requiring resolution clarification from the UFC's official records.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.