Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-3.5) vs Dplus (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Winner | 96% |
| Match Winner | 86% |
| Map 4 Winner | 69% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 50% |
| Map Handicap: OSG (-1.5) vs Dplus (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-3.5) vs Dplus (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-3.5) vs Dplus (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-3.5) vs Dplus (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: OSG (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-3.5) vs Dplus (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
ONSIDE GAMING faces Dplus KIA in the VCL Korea Lower Bracket final, a Best-of-5 showdown scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on 13 July. The 0% crowd-implied probability for an ONSIDE win reflects a severe misreading of recent form, as ONSIDE dominated the regular season with a flawless 7–0 record and a +75 map differential, while Dplus finished 3–4 in the same split [5]. Historically, head-to-head data heavily favours ONSIDE: they swept Dplus 2–0 in April 2026 playoffs and won the previous Lower Final 2–1 in 2025, securing maps on Split and Haven while limiting Dplus to Pearl [1][4][7].
Traders should monitor official team announcements for any roster absences or coaching changes before the match begins, as Dplus’s inconsistent Split 2 performance suggests vulnerability without their full core. The match is live today, with GosuGamers providing real-time score updates and map statistics as the contest unfolds [2]. No delays beyond the seven-day settlement window have been reported, and the BO5 format means map-by-map momentum shifts could rapidly alter the outcome if Dplus finds early stability on their preferred maps. The 50–50 cancellation clause remains a distant risk given the confirmed schedule and active live coverage.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO5) - VCL Korea: Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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