Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Phoenix Mercury travel to face the New York Liberty on 27 May at 7:00 PM ET in a regular-season WNBA matchup. The 2% implied probability for a Mercury victory reflects the Liberty's stronger positioning heading into the contest. New York has maintained a more consistent win rate through the early season, whilst Phoenix has struggled with roster continuity and inconsistent performances across recent games.

Historical precedent suggests that when a team carries such a low probability in a single-game market, upsets do occur but remain genuinely rare events. The 2% figure implies roughly one-in-fifty odds, a threshold typically reserved for matchups where one side faces significant structural disadvantages—injuries to star players, extended losing streaks, or pronounced talent gaps. Phoenix's recent form and the Liberty's relative stability in the standings support this framing, though single games contain inherent variance that season-long records cannot fully capture.

Traders should monitor official team announcements regarding player availability, particularly for Phoenix's key contributors, through to the settlement window closing on 27 May at 23:00 UTC. Any late withdrawal of Liberty starters would materially shift the probability; similarly, confirmation of Phoenix's full roster availability could narrow the gap. Coaching adjustments or tactical shifts announced in the days prior may also influence how closely the teams match up. The Liberty's home-court advantage at their venue adds structural weight to the current pricing, though weather delays or scheduling complications could extend the settlement window if the game faces postponement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.