PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is a single WNBA game between the Portland Fire and the Chicago Sky on 26 June at 7:30PM ET, where the market resolves to the winner’s name. Portland enters on a four-game road losing skid, having just suffered a 101–78 defeat to Chicago in a statement win two days prior, with Skylar Diggins scoring 15 points and Sydney Taylor adding 14 [2][3]. A 16% crowd-implied probability for Portland winning aligns with historical patterns where teams on multi-game road skids facing a superior opponent with recent dominance rarely reverse form; comparable cases in the WNBA show such underdogs win only 12–18% of rematches within a week, especially after a double-digit loss [2][5].

Traders should monitor pre-game injury reports for both squads, particularly Portland’s key rotation players, as absences could widen the gap further. Chicago’s coaching staff has shown consistency under head coach Teresa Weatherspoon, while Portland’s recent tactical adjustments have failed to stop high-efficiency opponents like Chicago [5]. The Las Vegas betting line of CHI –6.5 and a 173.5 total points suggests Chicago is expected to control pace and scoring, reinforcing the low probability for Portland [1]. Any announcement of a postponement would keep the market open, but cancellation without a make-up game would resolve 50–50, a scenario unlikely given the confirmed schedule [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.