Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been unstable since the recent Iran–Israel confrontation, with reports of vessel attacks, insurer caution and ad hoc Iranian security requirements weighing on transits. The market’s 45% YES price implies traders expect a partial normalisation before the July deadline, but not a clean return to pre-crisis throughput. For this market, the key threshold is a 7-day moving average of 60 or more IMF Portwatch “Arrivals of Ships”, so a few large days are not enough if the rolling average remains suppressed.

The main comparison is with earlier Gulf shipping shocks, where traffic often recovered unevenly: tankers and compliant commercial vessels resumed first, while state-linked or high-risk traffic lagged. That pattern matters here because recent reporting has described selective passage, with Iranian authorities signalling that non-hostile vessels may transit if they comply with security rules. Reuters has reported that some ships have faced informal payment demands of up to $2 million per voyage, which could deter traffic even without a formal closure.

Traders should watch for any de-escalation in attacks, revised UKMTO or JMIC advisories, and changes in Iranian enforcement around escort, coordination or fees. IMF Portwatch updates are the decisive input for settlement, so the relevant catalyst is whether daily calls recover steadily enough to lift the 7-day average over 60 before 31 July. Scheduled disruptions, rerouting decisions by carriers, and insurance pricing will also shape whether recovered flows are broad-based or remain too thin to settle the market YES.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.