Will Trump restart Project Freedom by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States military has previously organised escort operations for commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil passes annually. Project Freedom, initiated under the Trump administration in 2019, represented a formal coalition effort to protect vessels from Iranian threats and regional instability. The current 0% implied probability reflects the absence of any active political or military momentum toward restarting such a programme under the current administration, with no recent statements from senior officials suggesting imminent action.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance on the likelihood of formal programme reinstatement. The original Project Freedom operated intermittently and faced resource constraints; similar escort missions have been conducted under different nomenclature or as ad-hoc operations rather than named initiatives. The distinction matters for settlement purposes—this market requires explicit announcement of "Project Freedom" or an explicitly equivalent programme, not merely continued naval presence in the region. Previous administrations have maintained maritime security operations without formally reviving discontinued programmes.

Traders should monitor statements from the Department of Defence, the State Department, and the White House regarding Iran policy and regional maritime security. Any escalation in Strait tensions, attacks on commercial vessels, or shifts in US-Iran relations could prompt policy announcements. Congressional testimony on Middle Eastern security strategy and budget allocations for naval operations in the Persian Gulf will provide early signals. The settlement window extends to June 2026, capturing potential policy shifts across an 18-month horizon, though the current geopolitical trajectory offers limited catalyst visibility for formal programme restart.

Methodology

We track Will Trump restart Project Freedom by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.