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Next Claude Opus released by 2026?

"Next Claude Opus released by 2026?" — live sports odds and platform comparison.

October 31 98% December 31 98% August 31 95% July 31 85% Volume: $242K Liquidity: $67K Closes: 31 Dec 2026
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Next Claude Opus released by 2026?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
98% 2% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
98% 2% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
October 3198%
December 3198%
August 3195%
July 3185%
July 2465%
July 227%
July 170%
July 160%

Market context

Anthropic’s next publicly available Claude Opus model remains unconfirmed as of late June 2026, with Opus 4.8 (released 28 May) still the current general-purpose flagship [1]. The company has not named a specific successor, though it previously announced plans for a higher-intelligence “Mythos” class, which was suspended in June under US export controls [1]. Historically, Anthropic has maintained a roughly three-to-four-month cadence between Opus releases—Opus 4.7 arrived in February, Opus 4.8 in May—suggesting a potential Opus 4.9 or 5.0 window in August or September 2026, well before the 2026 settlement deadline [1][4].

Traders should monitor Anthropic’s official newsroom and API changelogs for any new Opus variant announcement, as the company typically announces launches directly on its site before broader rollout [2][3]. Key dependencies include the resolution of the June export-control suspension on Mythos-class models, which could delay or redirect development focus away from Opus [1]. A beat-reporter note from CNBC confirms that Opus 4.7 was explicitly positioned as “broadly less capable” than Mythos, implying Opus remains the public-facing flagship while Mythos targets specialised enterprise use [4]. Any official naming of an Opus variant—such as Opus 4.9 or Opus 5.0—would trigger immediate public access via the Claude API and desktop app, satisfying the market’s “publicly accessible” condition [2][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Next Claude Opus released by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Related Topics

AI Prediction Markets Anthropic Prediction Markets