Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| October 31 | 98% |
| December 31 | 98% |
| August 31 | 95% |
| July 31 | 85% |
| July 24 | 65% |
| July 22 | 7% |
| July 17 | 0% |
| July 16 | 0% |
Market context
Anthropic’s next publicly available Claude Opus model remains unconfirmed as of late June 2026, with Opus 4.8 (released 28 May) still the current general-purpose flagship [1]. The company has not named a specific successor, though it previously announced plans for a higher-intelligence “Mythos” class, which was suspended in June under US export controls [1]. Historically, Anthropic has maintained a roughly three-to-four-month cadence between Opus releases—Opus 4.7 arrived in February, Opus 4.8 in May—suggesting a potential Opus 4.9 or 5.0 window in August or September 2026, well before the 2026 settlement deadline [1][4].
Traders should monitor Anthropic’s official newsroom and API changelogs for any new Opus variant announcement, as the company typically announces launches directly on its site before broader rollout [2][3]. Key dependencies include the resolution of the June export-control suspension on Mythos-class models, which could delay or redirect development focus away from Opus [1]. A beat-reporter note from CNBC confirms that Opus 4.7 was explicitly positioned as “broadly less capable” than Mythos, implying Opus remains the public-facing flagship while Mythos targets specialised enterprise use [4]. Any official naming of an Opus variant—such as Opus 4.9 or Opus 5.0—would trigger immediate public access via the Claude API and desktop app, satisfying the market’s “publicly accessible” condition [2][5].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Next Claude Opus released by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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