GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI has not publicly launched **GPT-6** and, as of the latest reporting in the search set, the closest comparable release was **GPT-5.5**, not a new sixth-generation model. That matters because a 0% crowd price is effectively saying the market sees no credible path to a named GPT-6 reaching the general public before the 2025 year-end settlement date, especially after OpenAI’s 2025 guidance that GPT-6 would not arrive that year.[1][17]

The best historical guide is OpenAI’s recent pattern of shipping major capability jumps under different branding, then rolling them out publicly after a period of internal training and evaluation. In April 2026, the codename “Spud” was reported as having finished pre-training on 24 March and then shipped on 23 April as GPT-5.5, with no architecture, pricing, or launch date ever published for GPT-6 itself.[1][13][14] That sequence shows how easily expectations can be reset by a rebrand or a delayed public label, which is the main risk for anyone betting on a literal “GPT-6” release rather than a broader next-model launch.[1][13]

The main catalysts to watch are any OpenAI product announcements, model-release notes, or ChatGPT/API rollout pages that explicitly use the GPT-6 name, plus signs of a public waitlist rather than a private preview.[10][17] If OpenAI continues bundling upgrades into GPT-5.x or other labels, this market likely stays pinned near zero; if it suddenly publishes a general-availability announcement for a model explicitly called GPT-6, the probability would have to reprice sharply.[1][13][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for GPT-6 released by…?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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