Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Felix Gill vs Kyrian Jacquet

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Felix Gill and Kyrian Jacquet are meeting in Roland Garros qualifying in Paris, with the market effectively treating the result as already decided. Jacquet looks the more established clay-court performer on recent sample size: he has a winning record over the past nine years and is listed at 5-2 on clay in 2026, while both men came through earlier qualifying rounds with setbacks. Jacquet beat Lorenzo Giustino in straight sets and then survived a tight three-setter against Nerman Fatic, whereas Gill also needed a three-set route and dropped two sets across his two matches. That profile supports Jacquet as the firmer short favourite rather than a one-sided mismatch, even if the crowd price has moved to an extreme.

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: whether the match is played on schedule, whether either player is pulled from the draw, and whether there is any interruption that prevents a completion inside the settlement window. The listed head-to-head pages from ATP Tour, Sofascore and Flashscore all point to the same qualifying match-up and there is no obvious injury or coaching change in the source set, so any move away from the current consensus would more likely come from official draw updates, late withdrawals or a rain delay at Roland Garros. FanDuel’s quick-bet pricing has Jacquet ahead at 3-1, which is directionally consistent with the market, but the gap is still much narrower than a 100% crowd probability suggests.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.