Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri

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Market context

Andrea Guerrieri and Max Alcala Gurri were due to meet in the Cervia Challenger semi-final, a first career head-to-head. The market’s 0% YES price is hard to reconcile with the pre-match view: initial odds had Guerrieri as the shorter side at around 1.48, with several preview sources leaning his way, and both players were in the same lower-tier Challenger environment where margins are typically tight. Guerrieri is the higher-ranked player on the available listings, sitting around 252 to Alcala Gurri’s 350, which is consistent with a modest edge rather than a clear one.

For traders, the key question is whether the match was actually completed within the settlement window. ATP’s score archive indicates Max Alcala Gurri won 7-5 7-5, which would settle the market to him if that result stands. If there were any scheduling changes, walkovers, or a non-completion after the first ball, the contract terms still matter: a match not played, tied, or delayed beyond seven days from the scheduled date resolves 50-50, while a started but unfinished match depends on who advances. With live listings from ATP, SofaScore and Flashscore all showing the fixture on 22 May in Cervia/Ravenna, the practical dependency is on the official result feed rather than pre-match sentiment.

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Methodology

This page reviews Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.