Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend

Platform comparison

Market context

Yuta Shimizu faces Jay Dylan Friend in a Granby tournament match originally scheduled for 13 July 2026. The settlement window closes on 20 July, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling before the market resolves to a 50-50 split. The current 100% implied probability for Shimizu reflects either a significant disparity in seeding or ranking, or a late withdrawal announcement that has not yet been reflected in market metadata.

Historical precedent suggests that 100% probabilities in tennis prediction markets typically emerge when one player is substantially ranked higher, when injury news has surfaced, or when a withdrawal has been confirmed but not yet formally announced. In lower-tier tournaments such as Granby, such extreme probabilities are less common than in Grand Slam or Masters events, where ranking gaps are more pronounced. The settlement mechanism—which treats cancellations, ties, and delays beyond seven days as 50-50 outcomes—creates a structural incentive for traders to monitor scheduling reliability and player injury reports closely.

Traders should track official Granby tournament announcements and ATP or ITF communications regarding either player's fitness status through to the settlement deadline. Recent weather patterns in the Granby region and tournament surface conditions may affect match completion odds. Any confirmation of withdrawal, injury, or rescheduling beyond 20 July would trigger immediate market repricing. Current odds suggest minimal uncertainty about the match occurring and one player advancing, but confirmation of the underlying event details remains essential before settlement.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.