Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Timofey Skatov and Vilius Gaubas are scheduled to meet in the Perugia ATP Challenger tournament on 1 June 2026, with the winner advancing in the draw. Skatov, a Russian player ranked outside the top 200, has competed sporadically on the Challenger circuit over recent seasons, whilst Lithuanian Gaubas has maintained steadier activity at this level, though neither commands significant seeding or ranking prominence at Perugia.

The 100% implied probability reflects the structural certainty that one player will advance unless the match is cancelled outright or delayed beyond the seven-day window. Historical precedent at smaller Challenger events shows cancellations remain rare once draws are finalised and players arrive on-site; weather disruptions at Perugia in early June are infrequent, and both players have confirmed participation. The settlement terms create a narrow band for resolution failure—only complete withdrawal, injury before play begins, or administrative cancellation would trigger the 50-50 outcome.

Traders should monitor the ATP Challenger Tour's official draw confirmations and any injury bulletins released within 48 hours of the scheduled start. Skatov's recent match record and surface preference on clay will matter tactically, though limited public match data exists for either player at this tier. The settlement window closes 8 June 2026 at 08:00 UTC, allowing a one-week buffer for rescheduling; any announcement of venue changes or date shifts would require immediate attention to the revised schedule.

Methodology

This page reviews Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.