Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
40% | 60% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
40% | 60% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 40% |
| ITF W100 Landisville, PA Women: Ava Catanzarite vs Martina Okalova | 2% |
Market context
Ava Catanzarite and Martina Okalova are due to meet in the qualifying event at Landisville’s W100, a hard-court ITF stop with the first qualifying day listed as 3 August and the main draw beginning on 4 August.[7][13] The market’s 2% price on Ava implies she is a clear outsider, which is consistent with how qualifying matches at this level are often priced when one player has stronger recent results, more tour-level experience, or a better ranking profile, even before the match is formally played.[13][14]
Landisville has produced a mix of straightforward and extended finals in recent years, including a 2025 title decided 7-6, 3-6, 6-4 and a 2024 edition that was not played, so traders should treat schedule risk and late withdrawals as real variables in this event.[11] The tournament itself is a 32-player qualifying draw on outdoor hard courts, which tends to favour players arriving with recent hard-court match sharpness rather than those still building rhythm.[13]
The main catalysts are simple: confirmation that the qualifying round goes ahead on time, the published order of play, and any late injury or withdrawal news before the scheduled start.[13] ITF tournament listings show Landisville running from 3–9 August, but lower-tier events can still shift with weather, court scheduling, or player pull-outs, which is why a low-probability position can move sharply if either entrant is scratched or the match is delayed beyond the market’s settlement window.[7][13]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for ITF W100 Landisville, PA Women: Ava Catanzarite vs Martina Okalova. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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