Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee | 99% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee Match O/U 23.5 | 88% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee Match O/U 21.5 | 86% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee Match O/U 22.5 | 86% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Nikola Bartunkova’s meeting with Lanlana Tararudee in Prague has been priced with Bartunkova as the clear favourite by most pre-match models, which is consistent with the market sitting well below a coin flip on Tararudee. Tennis Tonic’s preview had Bartunkova ahead on the initial odds, and Tennis.com’s match page also leaned towards Bartunkova, while both players were described as coming in with no head-to-head edge over the other in the available database, a reminder that this is more about current level than long rivalry patterns.[1][3][4]
The main read-through for traders is that Tararudee already logged a round-one win in Prague, beating Jana Kovackova in three sets, so her route into this match came with some match sharpness and court time.[5] By contrast, the market’s current 19% YES price implies a sizeable upset is required, and that aligns with outside projections that still favour Bartunkova but not overwhelmingly.[4][8] The biggest catalysts now are the official order of play, any last-minute injury or withdrawal news, and whether the match is completed on schedule, because the market will flip to 50-50 if it is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond the seven-day window.[2]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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