Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Set 1 Winner | 89% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic | 73% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Set 2 Winner | 41% |
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 41% |
Market context
Lois Boisson’s first-round meeting with Antonia Ruzic at the National Bank Open comes with a market price that leans towards Boisson, but the tennis context is more balanced than the implied 73% suggests. The pair have no recorded head-to-head, and both arrive with uneven recent form: Boisson has struggled through much of her 2026 comeback after injury, while Ruzic has also been inconsistent despite spending most of the year in the top 60 and posting better hard-court results than Boisson in WTA 1000 play.[4][5][9]
Comparable cases in women’s tour pricing show that rankings and surface records can be overstated when one player has a disrupted season and the other is coming off modest but more regular tour exposure. Boisson, the 2025 Roland Garros semi-finalist, qualified in Toronto after beating Emiliana Arango, which offers a clearer signal than her broader season record; by contrast, Ruzic’s 2026 hard-court run has included a Dubai quarter-final and an Indian Wells third round, but she has also exited early in recent events.[3][5][7]
For traders, the main catalysts are whether either side is confirmed fit and whether the draw timing changes, because the market settles on advancement rather than pre-match status. Watch for late injury or withdrawal reports, line-up updates from broadcasters and tournament channels, and any scheduling disruption in Toronto, where first-round matches can be shifted if earlier court assignments run long.[1][3][13]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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