Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Liudmila Samsonova and Jil Teichmann are scheduled to meet in the opening round of Roland Garros on 24 May 2026. The Russian player, ranked in the top 20 for much of 2025, has shown inconsistent form on clay courts despite her baseline strength. Teichmann, the Swiss left-hander, has struggled with injury management over recent seasons and typically peaks on faster surfaces, making a clay-court first-round matchup a potential vulnerability in her draw.

Historical precedent suggests that 0% implied probability reflects either missing data or a technical settlement condition rather than genuine certainty. First-round matches at Roland Garros rarely see such extreme pricing unless one player has withdrawn or the fixture carries unusual administrative uncertainty. Samsonova's head-to-head record against Teichmann stands at 2–1, though their encounters have been spread across different surfaces and years, limiting predictive weight. The 2026 seeding and draw positioning will materially shift expectations once released in late May.

Traders should monitor official Roland Garros draw announcements and any injury updates from both camps in the week preceding the match. Samsonova's clay-court preparation tournaments in April and May will signal her readiness; Teichmann's participation in warm-up events will clarify her fitness status. The settlement window closes 31 May at 09:00 UTC, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling. Any withdrawal or late postponement beyond that window triggers a 50–50 resolution, so fixture confirmation closer to the scheduled date becomes critical for market accuracy.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.