GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Jil Teichmann’s quarter-final against Yasmine Kabbaj in Rabat was scheduled for 21 May, with the market still open because the match had not yet produced a result. Teichmann comes in as the more established WTA player, while Kabbaj is the home contender and lower-ranked entrant, so the baseline price should normally lean towards the Swiss player. That said, the market’s current 0% YES implies the contract is pricing in a non-standard outcome, such as the match being unplayed, suspended or otherwise pushed into the settlement edge cases rather than a straightforward Teichmann advance.

Comparable situations in this event suggest that early-round clay matches in Rabat can stay tight if the home player serves well and controls longer rallies. Preview reporting before the match pointed to Teichmann as the favoured winner, with one model giving her roughly a 78% chance and another market placing her around 56¢, but those were pre-match estimates rather than settled results. TennisTemple listed Teichmann at world No. 207 and Kabbaj at No. 334 in its match page, underlining the ranking gap that normally supports Teichmann, even if clay-court conditions can narrow it.

For traders, the main variables are whether the match was completed within the settlement window and whether any WTA or tournament updates changed the scheduling after the original start time. Recent previews noted that both players had already won matches in Rabat without dropping a set, which means either player carrying that form into this quarter-final would be relevant if the match resumed or was replayed. The key dependency is straightforward: if Teichmann advanced on court, the market resolves accordingly; if the contest was not completed and falls into the delay or cancellation rules, it may resolve 50-50 instead.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.