Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

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Market context

Ships are returning to the Strait of Hormuz after a deal halted the US-Iran war, with 25 commercial vessels crossing on Thursday—more than triple the daily average since March. This surge marks the highest volume since April, following a memorandum guaranteeing immediate reopening of the waterway. However, the strait remains effectively closed for most traffic, with only low-risk transits recorded recently, and war risk cover still expired for many tanker owners.

Historically, this is the first operational closure of the Strait in modern history, lasting exactly 100 days as of June 8, 2026. Pre-war, over 150 ships passed daily; now, traffic has dropped precipitously to as few as 18 on 1 March. Comparable disruptions, such as the brief April 21 reopening that closed again the next day, show volatility rather than sustained recovery. With current crowd-implied probability at 0%, the market reflects that reaching 60 ships in a 7-day average by June 30, 2026, is highly unlikely given the persistent risk and insurance barriers.

Traders should watch the US naval blockade lift on July 19, Iran’s commitment to restore pre-war traffic levels, and whether P&I clubs reinstate war risk cover. Recent reports note ships rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 14 days and soaring costs, while some owners still transit without AIS despite extreme danger. A beat-reporter from AFP News confirms the surge but cautions that overall activity remains below normal despite diplomatic progress, suggesting the 60-ship threshold remains out of reach before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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