Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in the White House with no immediate sign of resignation or removal, underpinning the market’s current 1% implied probability that he will cease being President by 31 July 2026. Historically, presidential removals have been rare and almost always tied to overwhelming political crises or constitutional breakdowns. The only prior U.S. president removed via impeachment was Andrew Johnson in 1868, who survived Senate conviction by a single vote, while Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 amid the Watergate scandal before formal removal. Trump himself faced two impeachments in his first term but was never removed, and recent attempts to invoke the 25th Amendment have stalled due to lack of bipartisan support [5]. These precedents suggest that without a dramatic shift in congressional control or a verified constitutional crisis, removal remains highly improbable.

Traders should monitor the November 2026 midterm elections, as Trump has explicitly warned that losing House control could lead to impeachment [3]. A Democratic majority in the House would significantly raise the risk of formal charges, though Senate removal still requires a two-thirds majority [5]. Additional catalyst include any renewed threats to foreign adversaries, such as Iran, which previously sparked bipartisan calls for removal [4]. Recent polling shows growing public support for impeachment, including among some Republican voters [8], but no official action has been initiated. As noted by Kalshi, impeachment probability has risen to nearly 28.7% in early 2026, yet removal remains a distant step [2]. Until concrete legislative moves or a verified incapacity event occur, the 1% market price reflects the structural barriers to Trump’s removal.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Trump out as President by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.