Trump out as President by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would have to resign, be removed, or otherwise stop serving as president before the end of 31 May for this market to settle Yes. The current 0% crowd price implies traders see that outcome as extraordinarily unlikely over such a short window. In practice, presidential exits of this kind are rare and usually require a sharp, observable trigger: a formal resignation, a successful removal process, or a sudden incapacity that is publicly acknowledged and sustained. Temporary absences or short transfers of power under the 25th Amendment would not count here.

The main reference points are not normal political noise but past episodes where officeholders have faced immediate, visible pressure. Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974 remains the clearest modern comparator for a voluntary exit, while involuntary removal has no close precedent in recent US history. That scarcity helps explain why a zero-implied probability can persist even when the White House is active and the political calendar is full: absent a direct statement or formal process, the market tends to treat continuation in office as the base case. Recent White House appearances, including events on 18 and 20 May, point to an engaged presidential schedule rather than any obvious transition signal.

Traders should watch for official announcements, emergency health disclosures, or signs of a constitutional process involving the vice-president and Cabinet. The market would resolve immediately on an announced resignation or removal before the deadline, even if the effective date came later, so any statement from the White House, congressional leadership, or Trump himself would matter at once. News coverage from Reuters, AP, or a major White House beat reporter would likely be the quickest way to confirm whether any development is procedural, temporary, or actually dispositive for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.