Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on 16 August 2026, measured via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. Settlement occurs at midday UTC on that date, capturing the morning's readings but potentially missing afternoon peaks depending on observation timing.

August temperatures at Schiphol typically range between 17 and 27 degrees Celsius, with historical highs occasionally exceeding 30 degrees during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the outcome to fall outside whatever upper threshold this market's resolution brackets define. Amsterdam's maritime climate moderates extremes compared to inland European stations; sustained heat waves above 32 degrees occur roughly once per decade in the region. The 2022 summer heatwave saw Schiphol record 35.7 degrees in July, demonstrating the airport's capacity to register exceptional temperatures when continental air masses dominate.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting from mid-August 2026, particularly high-pressure systems developing over Scandinavia or the continent that could drive warm southerly flows into the Netherlands. The specific reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than official KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) data—introduces a technical dependency; discrepancies between sources have occasionally occurred. Schiphol's location near the North Sea coast means maritime influence typically caps daily highs, making extreme readings dependent on rare atmospheric conditions rather than seasonal norms.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

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