Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam’s highest temperature on 31 July will be set by the day’s peak reading at Schiphol, so the market is really about whether the airfield gets a brief warm surge rather than the full-day average. Late-July Amsterdam normally sits around the low 20s Celsius, with July averages near 22°C for highs and about 18°C overall, while warm days can still push into the high 20s or around 30°C[8][12][13]. That makes the current 0% implied probability for the relevant range hard to reconcile with climatology alone: the city has reached the mid-30s in recent Julys, including 35.8°C on 1 July 2025, but those are exceptional outcomes rather than the norm[14].

For traders, the key catalyst is the afternoon forecast at Schiphol and whether any short-lived plume of continental heat arrives before the market closes at midday UTC, because the settlement source is the station’s maximum for the whole calendar day[Market description]. Current forecast data for Amsterdam points to a warm but not extreme July day, with one service showing around 26°C and another around 26–28°C, plus a chance of drizzle and a breezy south-westerly flow[3][2]. That combination generally caps the upside versus a still, sunny easterly set-up, so any last-minute upgrade in temperatures, cloud cover, or wind direction would be the main thing to watch[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.