Highest temperature in Ankara on May 22?

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Market context

The market will settle on the highest temperature observed at Esenboğa International Airport in Ankara on 22 May, using the final Wunderground reading for that day. With the current crowd view at 0% for the affirmative side, the market is treating the session as effectively decided in favour of a low outcome, which is consistent with a late-May Ankara profile that is usually warm in the day but not extreme by midsummer standards.

Ankara’s May climate typically produces average highs in the low 20s Celsius, with recent forecasts showing daytime peaks mostly in the low to mid-20s and occasional warmer spells. That makes the upper end of the market’s range plausible, but not common; a single cool front, cloud cover or breeze can keep the airport reading well below the kind of maximum needed for the higher brackets. Historical weather services for Ankara also point to a city where May temperatures are variable rather than locked into one band, so the final reading often depends on the warmest hour rather than the day’s average.

Traders should watch the local forecast updates for Esenboğa, especially any change in cloud cover, wind direction and the expected timing of the warmest part of the day before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. The key dependency is the airport station’s realised maximum, not the citywide forecast, so a last-minute shift in the afternoon heat peak matters more than broader Ankara averages. If the final hours stay bright and calm, the upper ranges become more likely; if morning cloud or a cooler northerly flow persists, the market will favour the lower bands.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Ankara on May 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.