Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Ankara's maximum temperature on 24 May 2026 will be measured at Esenboğa International Airport, the city's principal weather station. May in central Anatolia typically sees warm, dry conditions as spring transitions toward summer, with daily highs commonly ranging between 25 and 32 degrees Celsius depending on atmospheric patterns and proximity to weather systems moving across the region.

Historical May data from Esenboğa shows considerable year-to-year variation. The station has recorded May highs exceeding 35°C during heat waves, whilst cooler years with unsettled weather have produced maxima below 20°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's temperature bands to exclude the actual recorded high—a positioning that depends entirely on how the resolution ranges are structured. Without visibility of those specific thresholds, assessing whether this reflects genuine meteorological expectation or simply reflects the market's mechanics remains difficult.

The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 24 May, meaning the highest temperature recorded throughout the entire calendar day must be finalised via Wunderground's historical data. Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts from mid-May onwards, particularly any signals of early-season heat waves or cooler Atlantic systems affecting the eastern Mediterranean and Anatolia. Turkish meteorological service bulletins and European weather model consensus in the days immediately preceding the date will provide the most reliable indicators of likely temperature ranges.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.