Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 24?

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Market context

On 24 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The airport's weather station serves as the official measurement point, with data finalised through Weather Underground's historical records. Resolution depends on the single daily maximum temperature reading, measured in Fahrenheit, across all daylight and overnight hours on that date.

Atlanta's late May climate typically produces warm to hot conditions, with historical highs clustering between 85°F and 92°F during this period. Over the past decade, 24 May temperatures at KATL have ranged from a low of 79°F (2015) to a high of 91°F (2019), with most years settling in the mid-to-upper 80s. Anomalously cool days—dropping below 80°F—occur rarely in late May, whilst extreme heat above 95°F is similarly uncommon at this stage of spring, though not unprecedented during early heat waves.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 24 May 2026, as these will provide the most reliable guidance on atmospheric patterns affecting Georgia. High-pressure systems moving into the Southeast typically elevate temperatures, whilst tropical moisture or frontal passages can suppress daily highs. Historical precedent suggests the most probable outcome clusters around the 85–90°F range, though the 0% crowd probability indicates current market participants are either heavily weighted towards specific temperature bands or awaiting updated seasonal forecasts before committing capital.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.