Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in Atlanta will determine the settlement of this market. The resolution uses official Weather Underground historical data from the airport's weather station, capturing the peak daily temperature in Fahrenheit across all daylight and evening hours.

Atlanta's late May climate typically produces warm, humid conditions with highs ranging between 82°F and 92°F. Historical data from the past two decades shows that temperatures exceeding 95°F on this date are exceptionally rare, occurring in fewer than 5% of years. The city's average high for late May sits around 87°F, with standard deviation of roughly 5 degrees. Comparable years with similar atmospheric patterns—such as 2012 and 2019—recorded highs in the upper 80s during this period, providing a baseline for typical conditions.

Traders should monitor spring weather patterns developing through April and early May 2026, particularly the position of the jet stream and any heat domes affecting the southeastern United States. Tropical systems tracking northward in late May could either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation or, conversely, drive humidity and heat if they stall offshore. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically reliable within 7–10 days of the target date, will offer the most actionable signals. Atmospheric blocking patterns or anomalous high-pressure systems established by mid-May would be the primary catalyst for temperatures substantially exceeding the historical norm.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.