Highest temperature in Beijing on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 14 August 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved via the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full day's high will be captured before resolution.

August represents peak summer in Beijing, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 29°C and 35°C during this period. The city's continental climate produces significant day-to-day variation depending on monsoon influence and pressure systems moving across northern China. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about the specific temperature bands offered in the market's resolution categories. Comparable August readings from recent years show that temperatures below 25°C occur rarely, whilst readings above 36°C are possible but require specific atmospheric conditions—typically associated with high-pressure systems stalling over the region.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August 2026, as these systems can substantially alter temperature patterns across northern China. The specific resolution methodology—using the Daily Observations table rather than summary high-low figures—requires familiarity with Weather Underground's data hierarchy, as discrepancies between the two sources have historically occurred. Real-time atmospheric pressure readings and humidity levels in the days preceding 14 August will provide the most reliable indicators of whether conditions favour cooler or warmer extremes.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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