Highest temperature in Beijing on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's peak temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured from the official Weather Underground station at Capital International Airport, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the final recorded high must be captured before the market locks.

August is Beijing's warmest month, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 29–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's temperature brackets to exclude the actual recorded high, a positioning that warrants scrutiny given the specificity of the resolution source. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table has occasionally diverged from official meteorological summaries by 1–2°C, particularly during rapid temperature swings or sensor calibration issues. Comparable August days at the airport station show considerable year-to-year variance; 2023 saw a 17 August high of 31.2°C, whilst 2022 recorded 28.9°C on the same date.

Traders should monitor long-range forecasts from late July onwards, as the East Asian monsoon pattern and any high-pressure systems over northern China will determine whether August 17 falls within a typical warm spell or an anomalous cool period. The China Meteorological Administration typically releases 10-day forecasts with reasonable accuracy by early August. Any tropical cyclone activity affecting the broader region could suppress temperatures significantly. The specific reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than China's official meteorological records—introduces a technical dependency worth confirming closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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