Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s summer heat is peaking today as the city enters its hottest and most rainy month, with the Beijing Capital International Airport Station expected to record its daily maximum temperature before the market settles at noon UTC. Historical data shows July is consistently the hottest month in Beijing, with average daytime highs around 30°C and frequent spikes above 31°C, while recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs between 29°C and 33°C [4][5][6]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome appears misaligned with these patterns, especially given that yesterday’s market for July 11 resolved firmly at 29°C, suggesting a stable but warm trend rather than an anomaly [3].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, which will publish the highest temperature recorded for all times on 12 July at the airport station [2]. Key catalysts include the afternoon weather forecast, as sunny conditions between 12:00 and 14:00 typically drive ultraviolet intensity and temperature peaks, while sudden thunder showers—common in July—could suppress highs [4]. With AccuWeather projecting highs up to 33°C (91°F) for the month and current hourly data showing 33°C today, the market’s zero probability stance warrants scrutiny as the settlement window closes within hours [1][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.