Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the daily high temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 5 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 30°C threshold at 0% probability. Historical data frames this starkly: on 5 July 2010, Beijing reached 42.1°C, and typical July highs average 88°F (31.1°C), rarely dipping below 78°F (25.6°C)[1][2]. While recent years show volatility, including a 40°C peak in July 2023 and China’s hottest month in recent history during July 2024, the 0% probability suggests the market expects a significant deviation from these established norms or a data anomaly[4][5].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground as the settlement window closes, specifically checking for any station recalibrations or missing data points that could skew the final reading[8]. The primary catalyst is the immediate weather pattern over the next six hours; if a heatwave persists as it did in June 2024 when Beijing hit 41.8°C, the 30°C threshold becomes highly plausible despite current pricing[6]. No formal announcements are expected, but the dependency on the specific time-of-day maximum recorded at ZBAA means traders must watch for rapid temperature spikes that could invalidate the current 0% sentiment before the 12:00 UTC deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.