Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15?

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Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 15 June 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. June in Beijing typically falls within the early summer period, when daily highs range between 28–32°C, though extremes can push toward 35°C during heat waves.

Historical records from Beijing's meteorological station show that mid-June temperatures have occasionally exceeded 33°C in recent decades, particularly during years with stronger subtropical high-pressure systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the resolution mechanism or expect the market to settle at a lower temperature band than currently implied by seasonal norms. Comparable June 15th data from prior years would indicate whether the crowd is underpricing warmer outcomes or correctly calibrating to typical conditions for that specific date.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks for temperature patterns across northern regions. Any significant heat wave warnings or anomalous pressure systems developing in late May would shift expectations materially. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 15 June, meaning final observations will be recorded by local afternoon—the period when Beijing typically records its daily maximum temperature.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.