Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16?

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Market context

Beijing's weather on 16 June 2026 will determine which temperature band captures the day's maximum reading at Capital International Airport Station. Mid-June sits within Beijing's early summer period, when daily highs typically range between 28°C and 35°C, though extremes occasionally push beyond these bounds. The settlement will rely on Wunderground's historical records for the airport station, which provides consistent measurement across years and allows direct comparison to previous June 16th observations.

Historical data from Beijing's meteorological records shows considerable variability in mid-June temperatures. The city has recorded June 16th highs ranging from approximately 22°C during cooler, wetter years to 37°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests traders expect the market's highest temperature bracket to fall outside typical ranges, though this may reflect limited participation rather than genuine conviction about extreme conditions. Comparable years with similar atmospheric patterns—such as 2015 and 2019—recorded highs near 32–34°C on equivalent dates, providing a reference point for assessing likelihood across different temperature bands.

The primary catalyst affecting June 16th temperatures will be the position of the East Asian summer monsoon and any high-pressure systems dominating northern China during that week. Weather forecasts become reliable only within 10–14 days of the target date, meaning traders should monitor meteorological updates from late May onwards. The China Meteorological Administration and international weather models will provide increasingly precise guidance as June approaches, allowing traders to adjust positions based on developing atmospheric conditions rather than historical averages alone.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.