Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4?

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Market context

Beijing's weather on 4 June 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records from the Capital International Airport Station, the official meteorological reference point for the city. Early June typically falls within Beijing's late spring period, characterised by warming trends as the region transitions toward summer monsoon season. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands available in this market or are awaiting clarity on the exact resolution thresholds.

Historical data from Beijing's June records shows considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on 4 June ranged from approximately 26°C to 35°C, with most years clustering between 28°C and 32°C. The 2020 reading of 34°C and 2019's 35°C represent upper-range outcomes, whilst cooler years like 2018 (26°C) demonstrate the influence of atmospheric patterns and precipitation events. These precedents establish a wide plausible range for next year's settlement.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from China Meteorological Administration in the weeks preceding the settlement window, as these typically refine expectations for early June conditions. Broader climate patterns—including potential influence from the East Asian summer monsoon onset timing—may shift probabilities closer to the market date. The specific temperature bands offered in this market will determine which historical comparisons prove most relevant; without visibility on those thresholds, current low probability reflects genuine ambiguity rather than confidence in any particular outcome.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.