Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

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Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. Late May in Beijing typically falls within late spring conditions, with daytime highs ranging between 28–32°C as the city transitions toward summer heat. The specific outcome depends on prevailing atmospheric patterns, including whether subtropical high-pressure systems have begun their seasonal northward migration or whether cooler air masses linger from spring weather systems.

Historical records from Beijing's May weather show considerable year-to-year variation. Over the past two decades, maximum temperatures on 25 May have ranged from approximately 24°C during cooler years to 34°C during warmer ones, reflecting the sensitivity of late-spring conditions to larger climate oscillations. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or uncertainty about which range the market has selected as its baseline.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in early May 2026, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration, which typically issues extended outlooks three to four weeks ahead. The East Asian monsoon's onset timing and strength will be critical; an early or vigorous monsoon transition could suppress temperatures, whilst delayed onset would favour warmer conditions. Real-time observations from late April and early May will provide the most reliable signal for adjusting positions closer to settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.