Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26?

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Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. Late May falls within Beijing's late spring period, typically characterised by warming trends as the city transitions toward summer monsoon patterns.

Historical May temperatures at Beijing Capital Airport show a median high of around 28–30°C, with extremes ranging from 22°C in cooler years to 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or expect conditions to fall outside the highest-temperature ranges listed. Comparable late-May periods from 2015–2024 reveal considerable year-to-year variation; 2020 saw a high of 31°C on 26 May, whilst 2018 recorded 27°C. This variability reflects the influence of early-season weather systems and moisture patterns that can either suppress or amplify temperatures during this transitional period.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in early May 2026, particularly from China's Meteorological Administration, which typically issues extended outlooks 10–14 days ahead. Atmospheric pressure systems moving across northern China and the strength of warm air masses from the south will be primary drivers. Any unusual jet-stream positioning or early monsoon onset could shift temperatures significantly. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 May, meaning final resolution depends on the complete daily maximum recorded at the airport station, with no opportunity for late-day adjustments.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.