Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?

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Market context

Busan’s heat profile in August is normally warm to hot rather than extreme, with average highs around 30°C and typical daily maxima in the high 20s to low 30s. Longer-run climate references also show that 10 August is usually a summer-warm day in Busan, with a historical average high near 29.9°C and a record high of 34.6°C for that date, so the market’s current 0% YES pricing on the highest bands is most naturally read as a view that the day stays below unusual-heat territory rather than a broad rejection of warmth altogether.[5][7][19]

The main reference point for traders is the current forecast versus the way this market settles: Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table at Gimhae Intl Airport, not the summary high/low box. Recent forecasts for Busan on 10 August point to upper-20s to low-30s Celsius, with cloudier or stormier conditions and a modest rain chance, while regional reporting has shown South Korea remains in an intense heat pattern, including Busan reaching the high 30s during the wider early-August hot spell.[3][10][12][15] That combination matters because an afternoon storm or early cloud cover can cap the observed maximum even when the broader regional air mass is hot.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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