Highest temperature in Busan on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan has already been through an extreme late-summer heat spike, with the city reaching 38.8C on a recent day and setting its highest temperature since modern observations began in 1904.[1][15] That matters for this market because the historical benchmark is now far above Busan’s normal August climate, where typical highs sit around the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius rather than the high 30s.[13][18]

The crowd’s 0% YES price implies the market is treating an outcome in the settlement range as effectively off the board, but recent comparable readings show that Busan can still get driven into the upper 30s during a regional heatwave.[1][2][17] Even so, the more common August pattern is for highs near 31C, and some forecasts for 6 August put Busan around 33C rather than anywhere near the late-July record zone.[10][11][12]

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s forecast updates, any Korea Meteorological Administration heat advisories, and whether a broader southeastern heat dome persists into the afternoon local-time observation window used by the airport station.[2][10] The resolution depends on the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae Intl Airport Station on 6 August, so a fast-moving swing in cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or rain chances would matter more than the citywide headline temperature alone.[5][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Busan on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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