Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s late-summer heat is usually still in play on 1 August, with average August highs clustered around 29.8–31°C and daily highs commonly near 87–90°F (31–32°C). Several climate summaries put the month’s typical range in the low 20s to low 30s Celsius, while long-run records show Chengdu can occasionally run much hotter, with reported August extremes above 39°C and a record high of 41.6°C in one historical dataset.[2][4][6][12][16]

That makes a 0% implied chance for a very low or very high temperature band easier to read as a statement about how far the market is from the climatological centre, not as a signal that the day must be cool. August 1 also sits right in the month’s warm season rather than at a transition point, and comparable daily-weather histories show the first days of August can still deliver upper-30s Celsius peaks even when the average is lower.[1][3][4][9] For this market, the main trading focus is whether Chengdu stays near its usual early-August ceiling or gets pulled away by rain and cloud cover, which commonly suppress daytime highs in this humid inland climate.[2][7][16]

The key catalyst is the actual airport station reading that Wunderground will use for settlement, so traders should watch for any midday rain bands, thunderstorm activity, or a later-afternoon clearing that could change the day’s maximum. Chengdu’s August climate is notably wet, with monthly rainfall often around 200–320 mm and rain on roughly 13–16 days, so short-lived convection is a real variable even on otherwise hot days.[2][7][12][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.