Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is experiencing its peak summer heatwave as July 11, 2026, unfolds, with the city historically reaching its highest annual temperatures during this mid-month window. The settlement hinges on the maximum reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, a location that typically records daytime highs between 30°C and 35°C in July, occasionally spiking to 38°C during intense heat events [4][6].

The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific high-temperature threshold appears inconsistent with historical climatology, as July is Chengdu’s hottest month with average highs of 31°C and frequent peaks exceeding 35°C [2][5]. Comparable cases from recent years show that mid-July dates regularly produce temperatures well above 30°C, making a scenario where the day remains cool statistically improbable unless an unusual cold front intervenes, which is rare for this period [4][10].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the official daily maximum, as the resolution source relies exclusively on this station’s recorded peak for all times on 11 July [9]. Key catalysts include the presence of the ongoing heatwave, with forecasts indicating fuggy conditions similar to Singapore’s July climate, and the potential for afternoon convection that could either amplify or slightly suppress peak temperatures depending on cloud cover [4]. No major coaching changes or team absences apply here, as this is a weather market; the primary dependency remains the atmospheric stability over Sichuan Basin during the settlement window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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