Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s summer heat is set to peak around mid-July 2026, with the highest temperature on 16 July to be recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station. The market resolves to the Celsius range containing that peak, sourced from Wunderground’s daily history for station ZUUU.

Historically, Chengdu experiences extreme heat in July, with daily highs frequently exceeding 35°C and occasionally reaching 38–39°C. For example, in July 2022, the city recorded a peak of 39.1°C, while July 2023 saw a maximum of 37.8°C at the same station. Given this pattern, a 0% crowd-implied probability for any temperature range suggests the market may be mispricing the likelihood of extreme heat, unless there is an unpublicised forecast of unusually cool conditions.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s 7-day forecast for Sichuan, released daily, and Wunderground’s real-time updates for ZUUU as the settlement window closes. A sudden shift in monsoon activity or cloud cover could suppress temperatures, but such events are rare in mid-July. No major weather disruptions have been announced for Chengdu as of early July 2026, according to the latest regional bulletins from the Sichuan Meteorological Bureau.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.