Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is under a warm, humid summer pattern, with current daytime forecasts already sitting in the mid-30s Celsius and rain still in the mix later in the day. BBC Weather shows 24°C in Chengdu at the time of checking, while the Met Office forecast points to a 35°C maximum, a useful sign that the day has scope to finish well above the market’s lower temperature bands.[1][3]

That makes the crowd’s 0% YES price look consistent with the broader July climate, but only if the market is asking about an unusually high threshold. Chengdu’s July averages are hot rather than extreme: typical highs are around 30°C, although short heat spikes can push temperatures much higher, with some July afternoons reaching 39°C according to travel climate data.[2] In practice, a result on the high side will usually require strong sunshine, limited convective rain early in the day, and no significant cooling from cloud cover or outflow later on.[2][3]

The key catalysts are the evolving day forecast, any midday rain band, and whether the local station records an afternoon peak above the expected range. Wunderground’s daily history page for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is the settlement source, so traders should watch the station reading, not the citywide forecast alone.[Market description] If the current 35°C-type forecasts hold, the market’s outcome will hinge on whether the actual airport maximum clears the next band up during the warmest hours.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.