Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's highest temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at Shuangliu International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the final temperature reading must be recorded before the market locks.

Chengdu sits in the Sichuan Basin at 500 metres elevation, experiencing a humid subtropical climate with pronounced seasonal variation. July is consistently the hottest month, with average highs around 29–30°C, though extremes regularly exceed 35°C during heat waves. Historical records show the city has recorded temperatures above 40°C on multiple occasions during summer months, most notably in 2006 when a peak of 40.3°C was registered. The airport station's readings typically align with urban measurements, though microclimatic factors at the facility can produce minor variations from city-centre observations.

The key variable affecting 25 July 2026 will be the position of the western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system in late July, which determines whether Chengdu experiences typical summer heat or an intensified heat dome event. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the weeks preceding the date, along with seasonal outlooks issued by regional weather services. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months will influence atmospheric patterns; current climate indices suggest monitoring through early 2026 for signals of anomalous summer heat across central China. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects uncertainty about specific temperature thresholds rather than dismissal of heat occurrence, given the region's reliable summer warming.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.