Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is entering the late-July heat window with forecasts pointing to another warm, humid day, and the market is really asking whether the airport station’s *daily maximum* lands in the upper 20s or pushes back into the mid-to-high 30s. Current weather readings already show 24°C with high humidity, while Chinese forecast pages have just carried highs around 37°C for 26 July and day-to-day ranges broadly in the low-to-mid 30s, so the settlement range will be driven by whether cloud, showers or overnight rain cap the peak before afternoon heating builds.[1][2][4]

That makes the 0% Yes price hard to read as a pure temperature forecast and more a reflection of the market’s range framing: July in Chengdu is normally hot, humid and rain-prone, with typical highs around 30°C and frequent showers, but comparable summer days can still spike well above that when cloud cover breaks late.[4] For this contract, the key historical lesson is that Chengdu’s climate often keeps readings elevated, yet precipitation can shave several degrees off the final high, so a modest shift in timing of showers matters more than the citywide average.[3][4]

Traders should watch the daily forecast updates for Chengdu, especially any change from cloudy or shower conditions to a clearer afternoon, because that is the main catalyst for a higher airport-station maximum.[1][2] The settlement source is the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station record on Wunderground, so the most relevant dependencies are local rainfall timing, sustained wind, and whether the warmest part of the day arrives before convective rain develops.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.